FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTIONS

With the spate of inclement weather over the first three weeks of the season, taking a look at doubleheaders is as good a place to start, particularly the second game.“Bullpens are the key to getting involved in the second half of a doubleheader,” Covers Expert Sean Murphy says. “You have to consider if any key relievers were used in the early game, and what impact their unavailability will have on the second game. Outside of that, I don’t usually treat doubleheaders all that different from regular games.”
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Fellow handicapper Marc Lawrence has similar thoughts.

“A common play in a doubleheader is to bet one team to avoid the sweep, but the fact of the matter is that doubleheaders, like the game itself, are subjective, and a lot has to do with a myriad of conditions surrounding the contest,” Lawrence says. “For example, is a team hitting the ball? What is the condition of the bullpen? Which pitcher is in better form? The bottom line is that Game 2 of a doubleheader is simply another game within the series and should be handicapped accordingly.”

Covers Expert Ted Sevransky pays attention to doubleheaders, but not for any of the aforementioned reasons. Rather, he’s thinking ahead as he watches the second game, looking for one of his preferred spot bets.

“I don’t bet a lot of doubleheaders,” Sevransky says. “But the day after a doubleheader, the team with the better starting pitcher is paramount.”

BETTING ON HOME TEAMS FACING SWEEP

Another intriguing spot prospect is whether to bet for or against a home team facing a series sweep. The common thinking is that the home team will buck up and win the last game of the series. But that’s not necessarily the sharp play.

“Sweeps aren’t uncommon in baseball,” Murphy notes. “In fact, you can often find value fading a team that is looking to avoid a series sweep, particularly at home. Motivation doesn’t play as significant a role in baseball, compared to other professional sports.”

Lawrence agrees with Murphy.

“Baseball is often times a game of streaks and it is important to recognize when teams are riding hot or cold,” says Lawrence. “I am more inclined to break out the broom and bet on the sweeping dog, rather than lay wood and hope a home team can avert being swept.”

Sevransky believes home teams facing a sweep can be a mixed bag, depending on the time of year and where they are in the standings.

“It’s a different story in April, versus July or September,” he says. “In April, everybody is still alive and will tend to rise up and play better. As the season progresses, that may change.”

BETTING AFTER EXTRA-INNINGS

This is a spot many sharp handicappers agree on, because it brings the status of a team’s bullpen even into play even more.

Coming off an extra-innings game, betting against a team with the more fatigued bullpen is a smart move. Perhaps smarter still is to bet the over in a situation where one – or both – bullpens have been taxed by an extra-inning affair.

“The bullpen in general is where bettors can really find an edge,” Sevransky says. “If two teams played 14 innings the night before, then come back with two mediocre starting pitchers, and the bullpens are taxed, bet the over. That’s definitely something I would look for.”

BETTING FIRST HOME GAME AFTER ROAD TRIP

The cliché says there’s no place like home. Well, in the first game after a long road swing, that might not hold true.

“This is an angle I consider in all professional sports,” Murphy says. “Players with families often have business to attend to when returning home from a long trip and, as a result, their focus might not be where it needs to be in the first game back.

“It’s not an angle I’ll play blindly, but it is worth paying attention to.”

The Phillies returned from a six-game trip Friday and dropped three of their next four games, including a 4-3 loss to Florida in their first game back.

Sevransky will look at this spot, too, but he’ll consider both the road and home team.

“There are nuances,” he says. “If a team has a great West Coast trip, then travels back east, they’re not only fat and happy, they’re also in a real bad travel spot. If a team has a bad road trip, there’s a little more urgency (to win) that first home game.”

The Red Sox could be worth a look at this spot trend when they return to Fenway Park against Seattle on April 29. They’re in the midst of a nine-game road swing, with the first six games on the West Coast.

BETTING STADIUM TENDENCIES

Covers Expert David Malinsky takes a different tack toward spot bets, looking particularly at pitchers’ tendencies in certain stadiums.

“There are ballpark issues that can have a direct impact on performances,” Malinsky states. “Pitchers who get a lot of fly balls can do well in certain parks, but struggle badly in others.”

Malinsky points to Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes, whose fly-ball style doesn’t sit well in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, and Red Sox veteran John Lackey, who got away with fly balls while with the Angels but has watched those hits soar over the wall since moving to the AL East.

And it’s not just pitching where ballparks are an issue.

“The same thing can happen with lineups,” Malinsky says. “Teams built for power will struggle in the bigger parks, since they often focus on sitting back and waiting for big innings, instead of trying to make something happen.”

BETTING BOUNCE-BACK STARTS

While Sevransky admits totals are what he likes best when it comes to betting baseball, he also pays close attention to veteran pitchers coming off rocky performances.

On April 11, Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka got hammered at home against Tampa Bay, lasting just two innings while giving up seven runs on eight hits. He gave up two home runs and a pair of walks in the abbreviated outing.

In his next outing, at home against Toronto this past Monday, Matsuzaka was almost spotless, throwing seven shutout innings while allowing just one hit and one walk in a 9-1 victory.

“After a veteran has a pretty ugly start, that’s a good spot,” Sevransky says. “This is his game where he’s gonna step up and pitch well.”

That could make Phillies stud Roy Halladay a good play when he toes the slab again. The right-hander went 6.2 innings against Milwaukee Tuesday and got battered, allowing six runs on 10 hits in a 9-0 home beatdown.